Cedigaz News Reports

 

10/01/2025
Europe's LNG imports surge

Europe's LNG imports rose to an 11-month high in December.

Asia also saw higher LNG imports, Reuters revealed in a report.

A total of 10.89 mill tonnes of LNG was imported by European interests in December, up 23% from 8.86 mill recorded in November and the highest since January's 11.18 mill tonnes, according to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler.

The sharp increase in Europe's imports came as winter demand rose and ahead of the end of Russian pipeline shipments through Ukraine at the start of 2025.

Asia imported 25.63 mill tonnes in December, up from 22.64 mill in November and the most since the 26.19 mill tonnes seen in January, according to Kpler data.

However, Asia's December figure was down 3.6% from the 26.58 mill tonnes recorded in the same month in 2023. Europe also saw a drop from December, 2023, when imports totalled 11.75 mill tons, or 7.9% higher than the figure for December, 2024.

A mild start to winter in North Asia coupled with rising spot prices were likely to have curbed importer enthusiasm for LNG.

China, the world's biggest buyer of LNG, imported 7.66 mill tonnes in December, which was down from 8.2 mill for the same month a year earlier.

Similar small declines were recorded by Japan and South Korea, Asia’s second- and third-biggest importers.

India, Asia's fourth-biggest LNG importer, recorded a small increase in December arrivals year-on-year, coming in at 1.94 mill tonnes, versus 1.86 mill in December, 2023.

However, India's LNG imports have been trending weaker since reaching a 2024 peak of 2.6 mill tonnes in June, with the lower arrivals coinciding with rising prices for spot cargoes.

The price of spot LNG for delivery to North Asia hit its 2024 low of $8.30 per MMBtu in early March.

Spot LNG price started rising from March last year onwards, reaching $12.60 per MMBtu by mid-June, $14.10 by mid-August and peaking at $15.10 by late November.

The price has since eased slightly to end at $14.60 per MMBtu in the week to 3rd Janaury..

In the past, prices above $10 per MMBtu have resulted in India taking fewer spot cargoes, and have encouraged Chinese buyers to resell LNG.

With Europe experiencing cold weather, it's likely that natural gas prices in the continent will remain supported, especially with storage dropping to stand at just over 70% full last week, which is below the 85% from the same time last year and the 76% five-year average.

European prices are high enough to encourage spot LNG cargoes to head to the continent, with the benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub ending at €47.17 per MWh, equivalent to $14.36 per MMBtu.

The loss of Russian pipeline gas through Ukraine and the faster drawdown of inventories means Europe is likely to keep LNG purchases at higher-than-usual levels for the coming months, which may prevent spot prices from having their usual seasonal downturn when the northern winter ends.

However, there is also the possibility that increased LNG supply, especially from the US, will be sufficient to meet any lift in European demand. (January 8, 2025, Source: https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/112699-europe-s-lng-imports-surge)

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