Cedigaz News Reports

 

20/11/2024
Gas consumption forecast rises

The Middle East-based Gas Exporters Countries Forum has increased its global gas consumption forecast by 2.3% for this year.

In October 2024, the EU's gas consumption posted a second consecutive year-on-year increase, rising by 5.5% to reach 23.5 bill cu m, after seven months of continuous decline.

This rise was primarily driven by industrial and residential sectors.

Similarly, US gas consumption increased by 2.8% y-o-y to 70 bill cu m.

In September, 2024, China’s apparent gas demand rose by 12% y-o-y to reach 35.8 bill cu m, with increased LNG demand for trucks and higher gas-fired power generation required for cooling, due to prolonged hot weather, especially in eastern and southeastern regions of China.

As for gas production, the projected global growth for 2024 was also  revised up to 2.5%, driven by stronger than expected output in the Middle East.

In October, 2024, US gas production continued its downward trend to stand at 90.6 bill cu m, representing a 0.8% y-o-y reduction.

This decline reflected the combined effect of the Hurricane Milton’s impact on Gulf of Mexico operations and production cuts in response to low Henry Hub prices.

In September, 2024, Europe’s gas production rose by 5.5% y-o-y to stand at 11.7 bill cu m, supported by higher Norwegian output and the production ramp up in Türkiye.

In Asia/Pacific, gas production was estimated to have risen by 5% y-o-y, driven mainly by the Chinese production’s remarkable 8% growth, as several new fields came on stream.

In Iran, a GECF member country, Phase 1 of the Kish offshore gas field started production, with a target output of 10.3 bill cu m per annum.

Global LNG imports rose by 2.4% y-o-y between January and October, 2024, totalling 341.1 tonnes, driven mainly by increased demand in Asia/Pacific, which offset lower imports in Europe.

In October, 2024, imports climbed 8.6% y-o-y to 34.4 tonnes, setting a record for the month, with strong demand in Asia/Pacific and rising imports in LAC and MENA.

Favourable price arbitrage from the Atlantic basin, particularly the US, along with rising gas demand and pre-winter LNG restocking, boosted LNG flows to Asia/Pacific, led by China, India and South Korea.

Meanwhile, Europe’s imports fell due to high gas storage levels, open Asia/Europe price arbitrage, and robust pipeline gas imports, which increased by 3% y-o-y.

By the start of the northern hemisphere winter season, the gas and LNG stocks in major regions were high. In October, 2024, the monthly average volume of gas in storage in the EU increased to 99 bill cu m, which represents an average regional capacity of 96%.

In the US, the average gas storage level increased to 106 bill cu m, or 79% of the country’s capacity, while narrowing the delta to the five-year average, while in Asia, the combined volume of LNG in storage in Japan and South Korea increased to an estimated 14 bill cu m. Energy prices:

Last month, gas prices in Europe rose, while prices in Asia remained relatively stable. The TTF spot price averaged $12.78 per MMBtu, reflecting a 9% month-on-month increase, while the average NEA spot LNG price held steady at $13.13 per MMBtu.

In the US, the Henry Hub spot price fell, averaging $2.20 per MMBtu, a 3% m-o-m decrease.

Looking ahead, spot prices are expected to gain support from rising European gas demand, driven by anticipated below-normal temperatures, along with increased LNG procurement from Asian buyers ahead of the winter season (November 19, 2024, Source: https://lngjournal.com/index.php/latest-news-mainmenu-47/item/112461-gas-consumption-forecast-rises)

WORLDWIDE - Natural Gas - Consumption