2023 SEMINAR: VOLATILITY, ENERGY TRANSITION

This year, the traditional Cedigaz Annual Seminar held on 29th June coincided with a time of apparent respite for the European and global gas markets. Europe managed to avert a major supply crisis last winter, stocks are high, and storages could be full by September, and gas and LNG prices have softened from record breaking levels in 2022. But as stated by Cedigaz’ newly appointed chairperson Mickaele Le Ravalec in her opening speech, supply fears remain very much alive for the winters to come, underpinning continued tensions and price volatility risks across global gas and energy markets.

These risks are compounded by increased pressure to accelerate the energy transition, to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, as well as to drive energy efficiency and savings.

European gas participants stand therefore at a crossroads of multiple, greater uncertainties encapsulated in the perennial trilemma of ‘Decarbonization, Affordability and Security’.
Carving a medium to longer path is proving more difficult for the gas industry. But discussions during the seminar also warned against a euro-centric view of the energy crisis. Indeed, the repercussions of last year’s energy crisis into global markets are still unfolding through relentless inflation, industrial demand destruction, currency and liquidity crunch, as well higher fuels and food prices in developing countries.

Quarterly report – Q2 2023 – International natural gas prices

In the second quarter of 2023, European and Asian spot prices continued to fall sharply in a context of weak demand and high inventories in the three major consumer markets (Europe, Asia and North America). In the second quarter of 2023, European and Asian spot prices were on average 60% lower than in the second quarter of 2022 but remained historically high. Improving gas supply-demand balances have resulted in a relatively abundant supply of LNG on the international market and high stock levels, particularly in Europe. As a result, the markets are not currently anticipating any major supply tensions in the short term. However, this view may change depending on weather conditions, which remain the main factor of risk and uncertainty.

Russian gas in Europe: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow.

An in-depth analysis of recent developments and prospects in Europe-Russia gas relations

 With quality information from Russia getting increasingly scarce, the Russian natural gas market has become more and more of a black box. In its latest report “Russian gas in Europe: Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow. An in-depth analysis of recent developments and prospects in Europe-Russia gas relations”, CEDIGAZ tracks the unprecedented changes between glorious “yesterday” (2018-2021), gloomy “today” (2022-Q1 2023) of Russian gas (both pipeline and LNG) in Europe, including the evolution of the European countries’ dependence on Russian gas, using data still available. The report also discusses possible futures for Russian gas in Europe after 2023 (“tomorrow”) – given new inputs, including selected pipeline export routes limitations, the Turkish natural gas hub initiative, and Russian LNG project developments.