2014: A SECOND YEAR OF MODERATE GROWTH OF GLOBAL GAS ACTIVITY

2014 has been a very mixed year for natural gas, according to the First Estimates 2014 released by the International Association CEDIGAZ today. For the second consecutive year, gas demand slowed down in 2014, with subdued activity in the global gas industry at all stages of the chain.

Top1 consumming countriesGlobal natural gas consumption (including storage variations) was sluggish in 2014 and remained at a quite similar level than in 2013. This can be explained by increased competition between energies, especially coal, the economic slowdown (Europe, China, Russia…), geopolitical turmoil (Russia-Ukraine conflict) and the mild weather conditions which negatively impacted the expansion of gas demand (Europe, Asia). The global consumption trend showed regional disparities. Natural gas demand in North America and the Middle East continued to register strong expansion, but the growth in Asia slowed down, while consumption in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Europe declined dramatically. Plummeting consumption in Europe (- 10%) in particular weighed significantly on the overall trend.

CEDIGAZ’s Monthly LNG Trade Bulletin of April 2015

In Asia, LNG prices are declining

Asian LNG imports and pricesIn Asia, LNG imports decreased in February, as they did last year at the same period. China, Japan and South Korea imported 12.5 million tons compared to 14.7 million tons in January 2015. February year-on-year demand in these countries fell by 5.1% overall: the drop was pulled by a 25.6% decline in South Korean imports while Chinese’s grew by 10.9% and Japanese’s by 2.9%. As a consequence of the easing on Asian markets and the fall in oil prices, import prices continued to dwindle: they reached $13.3/mmbtu in Japan (including trades below $10/mmbtu), $10.4/mmbtu in China and $13.5 in South Korea. February prices represented a 20% year-on-year drop in Japan and South Korea and a fall of 11% in China.

Shell’s acquisition of BG: the global LNG leader cannot do without internal growth

In 2014, the purchase of Repsol’s LNG assets in Peru and Trinidad and Tobago brought Shell an additional 4.3 mmtpa in liquefaction capacity and strengthened its global leadership in the LNG upstream sector. With the $70 billion takeover of BG, the Anglo-Dutch major is about to become the unquestionable leader, thanks to the world’s largest and most diverse portfolio. BG’s contracts will provide the company with an unprecedented coverage of global markets, but Shell has to keep developing LNG projects, as the medium- and long-term production of BG’s assets is uncertain.