Ten major trends in the European gas market (Part 2)

The EU gas and energy sector is in the midst of a profound transformation driven by decarbonisation, digitalisation and decentralisation. The latest report by Cedigaz analyses in ten key points the evolution of the gas sector and includes forward looking views on new trends in EU gas markets.

6. Role of gas in the energy transition in the medium term: Natural gas is expected to be a key pillar of the EU energy transition. As the cleanest of all fossil fuels, it allows a quick reduction of the power sector’s emissions thanks to coal-to-gas switching. Moreover, thanks to its flexibility, natural gas is an ideal partner to renewables. Gas-fired power plants are well suited to follow rapid swings in power supply of variable renewables. In the transport sector, the cleanliness of natural gas is a key advantage for improving air quality, a major health and economic issue. In maritime transport, new regulations to reduce sulphur emissions from shipping play a key role in the development of LNG as a marine fuel. Natural gas, if it cannot decarbonise the heating sector, can make an effective contribution to reducing emissions from the sector and, in the long term, can be replaced by renewable gas.

UK power supply & CO2 emissions from power plants

Ten major trends in the European gas market (Part 1)

The EU gas and energy sector is in the midst of a profound transformation driven by decarbonisation, digitalisation and decentralisation. The latest report by Cedigaz analyses in ten key points the evolution of the gas sector and includes forward looking views on new trends in EU gas markets.

1. Decarbonisation: The EU has a high decarbonisation objective. With the ratification of the Paris Agreement in 2016 and the 2030 climate and energy framework, the EU energy mix requires a profound transformation. The legislative process to implement the 2030 goals was initiated with the Energy Union Package in 2015 and subsequently by the Energy Security Package and the Clean Energy Package. Already, Europe’s energy system is moving fast from a fossil-fuelled energy system to a low-carbon, more digital and consumer centric system. In this new context, the role of gas in the clean energy transition needs to be defined.

NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH ACCELERATED IN 2017, UNDER THE IMPULSION OF CHINA

Recent trends in world natural gas demand

The year 2017 still highlights the strong competition between natural gas, coal and renewable energies. While the global economic recovery has strengthened, it is estimated that growth in global gas consumption accelerated to 3% in the first three quarters of 2017, compared to the same period last year. But, at the same time, global consumption of coal would have increased at a similar pace, driven by Asian countries. In China, coal consumption increased significantly in 2017 after three years of decline. This increase is linked to an acceleration in electricity demand.

Many factors contributed to the strong expansion of global gas demand in 2017. As in 2016, Europe and China were the fastest growing gas markets. For the third year in a row, European gas consumption recorded strong growth in 2017, provisionally estimated at 5%, after a steady decline over the period 2010-2014. Many factors were at play: coal-to-gas switching in power generation as gas competitiveness versus coal improved; the replacement of some coal-fired power plants: a steady trend in the heating sector; the gradual economic recovery; a reduction in hydropower; French nuclear problems and a greater use of gas in transport. At the international level, it is China that has seen the largest increase, in absolute terms, in its gas demand. Cedigaz preliminary estimates show a record growth of 18% (+ 35 Bcm) in 2017, double the average growth rate observed over the period 2010-2016.