VIEWS FROM THE CEDIGAZ 2024 SEMINAR

SHIFTING THE FOCUS ON GAS DEMAND, HARD TRUTHS AND BOLDER ADVOCACY

Pragmatism, optionality and communication were the words of the day at Cedigaz’ traditional annual seminar held in Paris on June 20th. Members of the European gas industry and overseas producers say these are badly needed to make long-term plans, ensure energy security and a ‘just’ energy transition. More than two years after the unprecedented energy crisis sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the list of challenges is not short: worsening global macro-economics, industrial demand destruction, chaotic global geopolitics, the imperative to fight climate change, and the necessity for Europe to boost its economic competitiveness and stem the tide of populism that has been fueled by higher food, energy and costs of living.

Political Uncertainty

The event, which brought together more than 70 delegates active across the gas value chain, was dominated by bittersweet feelings. The fact that Europe managed to avert major energy blackouts and worst-case scenarios after the war in Ukraine broke out demonstrated its capacity to respond to reduced Russian gas pipeline supplies.

But this was not without record prices spikes and wider socio-economic damages, from job losses at industrial sites in Europe, to costs incurred by poorer nations in emerging markets who could not afford to pay record LNG prices and turned to coal and oil for their own energy security.

Global demand for natural gas only marginally recovered from the shock caused by the cut in Russian natural gas supply a year earlier

After a 1.5% decline in 2022, marked by the gas supply crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, global natural gas consumption recovered slightly in 2023, with an estimated growth rate of 0.6%. The Russian gas crisis has led to tense market conditions as global LNG supply growth was too limited to compensate for the cut of Russian gas supplies to Europe. However, a number of economic, technological and weather factors eased the market and tempered the pressure on both demand and prices in 2023.  Europe stands out with a very steep decline in demand to its lowest level since 1995. Driven by this steep reduction in natural gas demand and record-high gas storage levels, European gas prices fell considerably while remaining highly volatile. Asian spot LNG prices followed a similar trajectory. The global market experienced a gradual rebalancing throughout 2023 and natural gas storages closed the year at or near the top of the five-year range in all three key regions (North America, Europe and Northeast Asia).

GLOBAL BIOMETHANE MARKET – 2024 ASSESSMENT

Biomethane in full gear

CEDIGAZ has just published its 2024 annual report on the global biomethane market which focuses on recent trends in global and regional biomethane markets in 2023. According to CEDIGAZ, global biomethane production expanded to 7.7 billion cubic metres (bcm) in 2022, a growth of 20% compared to 2021, driven by Europe and North America. It is estimated at 9.5 bcm in 2023, an increase of 23%. Driven by strong structural policy and market drivers, the biomethane market is poised for a huge expansion over this decade and beyond. The targets announced by regional and national governments around the world exceed 100 bcm/y by 2030. Reaching this ambitious level requires the adoption of the right policy and regulatory framework, an acceleration of support, and faster permitting, which many governments have put in place in 2023.