International Gas Prices – April 3 , 2015

NBP: Long-term and spot prices converging in 2015?

NBP and coal graphiqueThe NBP price averaged €22.3 /MWh ($7.1/MBtu) in March, down 4.5% over February. The average for winter 2014-15 was roughly the same (€22.5/MWh), lower by 16% than that of the previous winter. So concerns over supply (Russia versus Ukraine, uncertainty over Groningue, the storage capacity at Rought) have not had a structural effect on prices.

In upcoming months, the market is anticipating an average price of €21.5/MWh ($6.7/MBtu) for next summer and €24/MWh ($7.6/MBtu) for next winter. Based on the current forecasts, these levels are moving towards convergence with the prices of oil-indexed contracts. If the trend persists and convergence occurs, this would represent a break with the situation observed since 2009. Between 2009 and 2014, the indexed prices served as a ceiling for the NBP, whose prices were systematically lower.

Waiting for the Next Train? – An Assessment of the Emerging LNG Industry in Canada

In February 2015, Canada counted 22 LNG liquefaction plant projects – of which 17 are located in British Columbia – representing a total design capacity of 325 mmtpa. Canada has the potential to become a major LNG exporter but no project has received Final Investment Decision (FID) so far. Competition with US brownfield projects with innovative business models have limited the commercial appeal of many Canadian projects relying on oil indexation. More recently, plummeting oil prices have put into question their profitability and lead to several postponements of FID reviews. CEDIGAZ’s new report Waiting for the Next Train? An Assessment of the Emerging LNG Industry in Canada discusses the potential for Canada to export LNG, looking at the initial enthusiasm and wide support by public authorities and local communities but also at the economic challenges and commercial issues that are slowing the progress of these projects.

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THE DATABASES

liquification plantsLiquefaction plants: CEDIGAZ has identified 132 projects (not including project closed, suspended or canceled) representing over 1,300 mtpa of potential liquefaction capacity, of which 34 operating projects (287.37 mtpa), 17 projects under construction – plus one expansion project – with expected start-up dates from now to 2018 (133 mtpa) and 81 projects – plus 14 expansion projects – at different stages of planning (880 mtpa).

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LNG Databases – Liquefaction – Sample – Q4 2014